In August-2017, Nike announced that it would be doing a special ‘collaboration’ with Virgil Abloh’s Off-White brand. Abloh was already established in the design world and had a pre-existing relationship with Nike (he assumed the role as the artistic director of the men’s line collection for Louis Vuitton in March-2018).
In Nike’s press release announcing the collaboration, it wrote:
“Abloh took his early design education — drawn from athletic footwear, hip-hop and rock album covers and graffiti, he says — and merged it with formal training in architecture and engineering. Now a successful creative director, DJ, designer and founder of the brand, OFF-WHITE, Abloh blurs the lines of various creative processes, rewriting the rules of fashion and design and injecting humor and DIY elements into his practice….Establishing this reconstructed design language, combined with Abloh’s urgency to fulfill a life-long dream, would ultimately lead to The Ten, a collaborative exploration of 10 Nike footwear silhouettes.
‘What we're talking about here is larger than sneakers, it’s larger than design culture,” says Abloh. “It’s nothing short of state-of-the-art design. These 10 shoes have broken barriers in performance and style. To me, they are on the same level as a sculpture of David or the Mona Lisa. You can debate it all you want, but they mean something. And that's what's important.’
The 10 shoes were divided into two themes. The first, “REVEALING,” (all released on September 9, 2017) was designed to look accessible: hand-cut, open-source and reconstructed. It included:
Air Jordan I (MSRP: $190.00)
Nike Air Max 90 (MSRP: $160.00)
Nike Air Presto (MSRP: $160.00)
Nike Air VaporMax (MSRP: $250.00)
Nike Blazer Mid. (MSRP: $130.00)
The second, “GHOSTING,” (all released on November 1, 2017) was designed with translucent uppers to further the idea of revealing and unite the second set of silhouettes through common material. It included:
Converse Chuck Taylor (MSRP: $130.00)
Nike Zoom Fly SP (MSRP: $170.00)
Nike Air Force 1 Low (MSRP: $170.00)
Nike React Hyperdunk 2017 (MSRP: $200.00)
Nike Air Max 97 (MSRP: $190.00)
The original sneakers in the Off-White x Nike “The Ten” collection designed by Virgil Abloh w/ approximate transaction values for Size 11 Deadstock pairs on StockX as of Oct-21-2019.
Everybody knew these shoes would be ‘special’ as Abloh was a successful designer whose style and use of everyday accessories to ‘dress up’ the shoe like the red plastic hang tag aligned with sneakers becoming a true ‘crossover’ fashion accessory. But, what people didn’t know is how lucrative these shoes would become. Nike did their usual drawing for these shoes through its SNKRS app and at select flagship stores but of course, the chance of you being able to actually buy these for retail price was incredibly small.
My Moves (and regrets):
As a ‘sneakerhead’, I was definitely intrigued by ‘The Ten’ collection. I had been seeing a lot of collaborations, but most of them were mere ‘logo-mashing’ rather than convergences of different and unique design principles. During this time, the VaporMax had quietly become my favorite Nike silhouette, and I had accumulated quite the collection of colorways. I was monitoring the price of the Off-White VaporMax sneakers on StockX (an online sneaker consignment broker provides authentication) and the price was hovering around $650, which is a lot of money to pay for a sneaker (I think most would agree). But, I had this feeling that the shoe would continue to appreciate. Finally, on December 3, 2017 (nearly 3 months after its release), I pulled the trigger and picked up a Size 11 of the Off-White VaporMax’s for $680 ($693 with authentication) - See Figure 1.
So I was right….that Size 11 Off-White VaporMax that I bought for $680, which was already a 270% premium over the retail price at release is now trading for between $1,500 and $1,800 on StockX - See Figures 2 and 3. I should have bought 5 pairs! However, while the Off-White VaporMax’s have turned out well, I made a couple of big blunders with a couple of the other Off-White releases:
Off-White Air Max 90: I actually bought the Off-White Air Max 90 from StockX on December 21, 2017 for $585 - See Figure 4. I wore them a few times, but because they were white with clear soles, they were getting dirty and did not foresee myself wearing them much. So, I sold them on eBay for $700 in January-2018. This shoe is now selling on StockX for between $1,200 and $1,400 - See Figure 5. Doh!
Off-White Air Jordan 1 Retro High Chicago: The most prized of “The Ten” releases was the Air Jordan 1 Chicago’s because…it’s an Air Jordan 1. I was thinking about buying the Air Jordan 1 in December when I bought the Air Max 90’s - at that time, they were trading on StockX for ~$1,400, which is an insane amount for a sneaker. So, I decided not to pull the trigger. Well, that shoe is now selling for $3,200 - $3,400 - See Figure 6.
Brand Release Patterns and NOT Data Drive the Sneaker Market: I’ve been involved in the “sneaker trade” for a while now (less so now), and new platforms like StockX have brought a lot more transparency and in many ways, efficiency to the market through data-driven insights. These platforms have not, however, brought any more predictability to how a sneaker will appreciate or depreciate over time. In most cases, sneakers will depreciate because of sneaky moves by companies like Nike and Adidas. Here are a couple of examples:
Nike’s Re-Retro’ing of….everything: There were a number of huge Air Jordan collectors that were holding on to rare Air Jordan releases from year’s past (think late-1990’s to early-2000’s). These shoes were holding value because they were thought to be one-off releases. Well, Nike had other plans. Over the past five years, they have basically re-released all of those shoes that collectors ‘thought’ were one-off releases which has completely destroyed their value because they are no longer rare - they’re sitting on shelves at every Foot Locker. Effectively, Nike flooded the market with Jordan’s, and Michael Jordan remains Nike’s most lucrative athlete even though he hasn’t played a professional basketball game in over 16 years!
Adidas Retro’s its Ultra Boosts: Adidas struck gold when it released its Ultra Boost silhouette in 2015 - a shoe that IMO really revitalized the brand (with the help of Kanye West) and re-ignited its competition with Nike. For a 3 year period, Ultra Boosts were all-the-rage. In-particular, the original Ultra Boost colorways (known as the Ultra Boost 1.0) commanded a very healthy premium on platforms like StockX. Case in point, there was a Solar Yellow colorway of the Ultra Boost 1.0 that was trading in the $450 - $600 range (Size 11) between mid-2018 and July-2019. And then Adidas, who has been struggling to keep the Ultra Boost hype ‘pulled the rug out from the market’ when they announced they would be retro’ing the Ultra Boost 1.0’s, including the aforementioned Solar Yellow colorway. Those shoes were re-released on October 10, and October 11th, StockX reported a sale of a Size 11 Ultra Boost 1.0 Solar Yellow pair for $180…ouch. Perhaps what is even more crazy is that StockX is showing pairs of the ‘Retro’ version of this shoe selling for more than the ‘Original’. From a practical perspective that might make sense (i.e., a shoe made in 2019 is likely more durable than one made in 2015 sitting in a closet, but that’s never how the sneaker world has worked - all else being equal, the originals trump the retro’s…
YTD sales prices of Size 11 Adidas Ultra Boost 1.0 in Solar Yellow colorway.